Place Your Bets

So now we have our Top 12, allegedly the most talented Top 12 in the history of show business. I’ll save my comments on the 4 who just missed out for my regular post on Tuesday, but now I’m going to try and be truly fearless and attempt to predict the order of elimination, the odds of each contestant winning (mine, not Vegas') and, by process of elimination, predict the winner.

#12 – Chikezie Eeze (100-1): Pretending to be Luther Vandross every week can only get you so far, especially when you insist on dressing like a Yale student.

#11 – Kristy Lee Cook (99-1): Simon predicted she’ll make it to #10, but my guess is that she won’t even make it that far, unless Country Week comes early this season. Then again, she’s become the Phil Stacey of Season 7, the contestant that somehow manages to stay on the show despite been predicted to be voted off every week.

#10 – Brooke White (80-1): She has a nice voice and the judges seem to love her, but honestly her performances put me to sleep. The only thing that makes her distinctive is this purity/innocence persona, which 90% of the audience won’t be able to relate to.

#9 – Michael Johns (75-1): At the start of the voting round he looked to be one of the favorites to win, but his performances have been wanting. His personality is going to win him any votes either. He could go higher than this but he’ll need to step up his game and step down the ego.

#8 – Amanda Overmyer (50-1): She has the most distinctive style of any of this year’s contestants. Amanda is still my favorite because she is so unpredictable. Being unpredictable, though, can have its disadvantages. She’s been wildly inconsistent, really good one week and really crappy the next, and it only takes one crappy week to get voted out. She should also try and become best friends with the Idol hairdresser.

#7 – Syesha Mercado (40-1): On a superficial level Syesha caught a big break last week. With Kady Malloy and her Britney imitations gone she’s the most attractive girl left on the show, and with Asia’h and her apostrophe gone Syesha is the only African-American girl left. Based on past trends this would suggest she’ll go far, but unless she starts showing some more in the singing and personality department there’s only so far Syesha’s looks can take her.

#6 – Jason Castro (35-1): He’s a one trick pony, and while Taylor Hicks showed that one-trick ponies can win American Idol Jason has about one-tenth of the personality that Hicks had, which is bad news for Quiet Man. The judges may claim it’s a singing competition but you and I both know there’s more to it than that. Plus he can’t keep picking acoustic ballads every week and hope to succeed.

#5 – David Hernandez (25-1): He ranks up with Ramiele Malubay in terms of pure singing voice, and he’s shown how hard he’s willing to work to win this competition. He’s going to have to work really, really hard though to overcome the stigma associated with his paying job. How embarrassed would the Idol producers be if they had a male stripper as their champion? Embarrassed enough to prevent that from happening I would guess.

#4 – Ramiele Malubay (10-1): She has perhaps the best pure singing voice in the competition, but she has to start making better song choices if she hopes to win. She also needs to keep her emotions in check, both on and off the stage. Jordin Sparks was able to do this last year and look what happened to her. If Ramiele keeps having emotional breakdowns whenever one of her boyfriends leaves the show people, especially her built-in Filipino fan base, are going to think she’s a slut and stop voting for her.

#3 – David Cook (8-1): Clearly the best of the rockers. How far he goes will depend upon how many weeks he can sing rock songs. What happens when he has to put the guitar down and actually sing is anyone’s guess, and eventually he’ll have to do that. Just ask Chris Daughtry how hard it is for a rocker to sing a standard ballad.

#2 – Carly Smithson (5-1): Carly is the steadiest and most versatile singer in the competition, the tortoise in a show full of hares. However, she hasn’t really connected with the audience at a personal level, and since this show is as much a personality contest as it is a singing competition that could come back to hurt her. Her previous recording contract could also work against her, since it’s already created a small but dedicated group of detractors.

#1 – David Archuleta (2-1): The producers love him, the judges love him, little girls love him, and little girls’ grandmas love him, and all of those, except the judges, are strong constituents to have on your side. Plus this kid knows how to win TV competitions. The only thing going against him is the fact that no teenage boy has ever come close to winning Idol. Some folks may also grow tired of David’s gee-whiz personality after 12-15 weeks of it, but I doubt enough people will to overcome all those who will remain loyal supporters. Another potential negative trend for little David is that in the last two seasons the favorite coming out of the semis, Chris Daughtry and Melinda Doolittle, have failed to come through and win.

I'm going to qualify these predictions by noting that its next to impossible to accurately predict the order of elimination since so much of that depends on specific performances and less on a body of work. However, this is supposed to be fearless right? And if this pans out I'll look like a genius.