Denial is a River in Egypt

Normally I save these posts for Tuesdays but I saw this AP article today and thought it was worth posting. My comments follow:

Erosion in young audience shows cracks in `Idol' future

By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer

NEW YORK - The fevered response to the latest loopy Paula Abdul episode, where she judged a phantom performance, just goes to show how "American Idol" continues to dominate television in its seventh season.

Yet while "Idol" is still a hit, it's no longer necessarily hip.

You can hear it in the lack of enthusiasm in 14-year-old Katharine Bohrs' voice.

"Last year I was really into it, and the year before that," said the high school freshman from Brookline, Mass. "This year in the beginning I was, but then track started up and I have a lot of homework. It's two hours long and I don't have the time."

She used to watch regularly with a friend. Now her friend records it and watches only occasionally, Bohrs said.

Statistics back up the anecdote. Audience declines for "American Idol" are steepest among youthful viewers, the people who set the pop culture agenda and are most likely to buy music made by the show's winners. These are not the people you want to turn off.

Make no mistake, "American Idol" is still the biggest thing on television. It is the reason why Fox will end the TV season later this month as the nation's most-watched network for the first time in history.

The show is averaging 28.7 million viewers this year, according to Nielsen Media Research. That's down 7 percent from the nearly 31 million viewers who watched last year. It's also typical — maybe better than typical: in this writers strike-marred season, "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" has shed 19 percent of its viewers, "Grey's Anatomy" is down 20 percent and "Survivor" is off 9 percent from last spring's edition.

"We're not in denial that the ratings are down," said Preston Beckman, Fox's chief scheduling executive. "There are things that we can control and there are things that we can't control. I defy anyone to show you a hit show that has been on for seven seasons that is at the level this one is on relative to where it started."

Among women aged 18 to 34, the "American Idol" audience has slipped 18 percent this year. Isolate teenagers 12-to-17, and the drop is 12 percent.

The median age of an "American Idol" viewer, once in the mid-30s, is now up to 42, Nielsen said.

And — horror of horrors — viewership is actually UP this season among people aged 50 and over. Those are the folks many television tastemakers pretend don't exist.

At the beginning of "American Idol," contestants like winner Kelly Clarkson seemed more sincere and devoted to their singing, said Chrissy Will, 16, a resident of California's suburban Orange County. Now they seem more focused on publicity and fame, she said.

"It's completely repetitive," Will said. "It's the same thing as the year before."

Her friend, Tina Oram, 17, said "Idol" now seems boring and over-promoted. She's more interested in watching dance contests (ABC's "Dancing With the Stars" is up in the ratings this season.)

"You can't not put your heart into dancing," she said.

Shows focused on the music of Neil Diamond and Andrew Lloyd Webber may also not have been the most youth-friendly choices. But no level of targeted mentoring can trump up the talent.

"The talent this year I don't think is as great as it has been," said Steve Rifkin, rap impresario and founder of Loud Records. "You're not going to hit a home run every year. I still think it's the most powerful show on TV."

Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Clay Aiken and Chris Daughtry set standards for "American Idol" contestants that are hard to top; last year's winner Jordin Sparks has had two radio hits, but so-so record sales. This year has lacked a breakout personality, even in a negative sense. Fans won't soon forget Sanjaya Malakar.

As for this year's contestants, Bohrs, from Massachusetts, just seems disinterested.

"I've only watched half the season so far so I don't know the contestants as well as I did last year," she said. "Last year I felt like I knew them personally and not this season."

Comments like that will likely drive Mike Darnell nuts. The chief of Fox's alternative programming said one of the biggest efforts in the show this year was to try to make the contestants people that the audience felt they knew.

Fox has several theories about the ratings slip this year, foremost that it would have been unusual for it NOT to slip. The writers strike, even though it didn't affect "American Idol" specifically, siphoned interest from TV in general, Darnell said. Young people are most likely to try new technologies, taking away from time spent in front of the TV, he said.

"You can always do things to get younger viewers back," Beckman said. "I don't think you have lost them forever."

Darnell pointed to MTV for the example it set in making itself over several times to appeal to generations of viewers who never heard of Martha Quinn.

"American Idol" needs no such overhaul. But the slippage has been noted and will be responded to, said the Fox executives.

"We've never been apathetic about the show, nor have the producers," Darnell said. "Every year there have been changes."

___
AP Television Writer Lynn Elber contributed to this report.

So basically Fox and the American Idol producers are not in denial that Idol's ratings are down, but they are in denial as to why. The comments from the tweeners tell the whole story. Despite the best efforts of the producers this year's contestant pool is more focused on fame than they are in singing. They don't want it bad enough, it shows in their performances, and the audience has picked up on it. The producers attempted to feature the contestants more than previous years, only to find that the contestants were not worth featuring as much as previous years. This group is boring and plastic, and the producers only have themselves to blame. They are the ones that stacked the deck with the ringers/discovered talent, and they were the ones that booted out the only amateurs that were halfway interesting.

You may think that I am bitter about Idol and ready to jettison this blog. No way, sunshine, this group of posers have given me plenty of material to comment on. And there's always Paula.

Interesting that AP found a music producer who thought this year's talent wasn't as good as previous years, in contrast to what Ryan had been claiming for several weeks (note the use of past tense). Also interesting that the average age of the Idol audience is actually older than I am. That, and the insightful comments from the tweeners, lead me to think I may be more in tune with the Idol audience than I had thought. I doubt it'll make my predictions any more accurate though....

As for the challenge layed down by Preston Breckman, I found that there have been shows that had better ratings in their seventh season relative to where they started. Cheers, Seinfeld, 60 Minutes, Family Ties, Friends, Dynasty, Dallas, and Fox's own The Simpsons all had better ratings in their 7th season compared to their first. Sounds like more denial to me.