Crystal Ball

Last season when the Top 12 started I attempted to predict the order of elimination. I'll spare you the need to look in the archives and tell you that I was not even close. So this year I decided not to try that again, especially since there was only one round of voting in the semis and thus there was no clear pattern that I could hang my hat on, or hang myself with as the case may be. However, after the first round of eliminations I am ready to predict who I think will be in the Top 5. But first an explanation for my rationale.

Over the last 3 seasons (which I am using because I didn't bother to watch the show until Season 5) there are two things that appear to be the leading indicators of who will do well and who will be sent home. Singing talent is of course one of them. The other is what I would call comparison shopping. As I eluded to in my last Fearless Prediction, Idol voters tend to group similar contestants together and compare them to each other, and send home those that do not compare well with others in their group. Take Jennifer Hudson for example. You would think given the post-Idol accolades Jennifer has won that she was one of the top finishers in Season 3. In fact, she finished sixth that year, the same position as Sanjaya Malakar 3 season later even though no one would say (unless they are Howard Stern or high on drugs) that Sanjaya and Jennifer are equal talents. I beleive the reason Jennifer finished sixth is because she was one of three African-American girls still in the competition and the other three contestants all had something unique about them. You had one guy, one teenage girl, one Filipina from Hawaii, and three African-American girls: Jennifer, Oakland's LaToya London, and eventual winner Fantasia Barrino. Jennifer was not voted off because she was sixth best contestant, she was voted off because she was the third best African-American girl. A similar fate has befallen others through the years, including Chris Daughtry in Season 5, who was the third best white southern guy behind Elliott Yamin and eventual winner Taylor Hicks. So to succeed on Idol you either need to compare favorably to others in your group or have something unique.

Now that the prep is out of the way, I predict the following 5 contestants will make up this year's Top 5: Danny Gokey, Allison Iraheta, Scott McIntyre, Lil Rounds, and Adam Lambert. I do not believe that Alexis White will make the Top 5 because she is the second best rocker girl behind Allison, and Allison also has an advantage being the only teenager and the only Hispanic left in the competition. So if Alexis wants to crack the Top 5 she better stop listening to Horny Chick Kara's advice and stop singing rock songs. I also do not believe that either Kris Allen or Matt Giraud will make the Top 5 because both of them share something in common with Scott McIntyre. Kris has the look that makes the tweener girls scream but so does Scott. Matt is a piano player but again so is Scott. Scott, though, by virtue of his blindness (though it is difficult to consider blindness to be a virtue) has something unique that the other two guys don't, and that is why I predict he will advance and Kris and Matt will not.

On the flip side Anoop Desai and Megan Corkrey have uniqueness but are bad singers in comparison to the others. Anoop is simply doomed and judging by his behavior on the results show last week (which I did in fact watch) he knows it. As for Megan, why Captain Jack Simon thinks Megan is the favorite to win Idol is a mystery to us all, unless there is something elicit going on that we don't know about...

The one wild card in this is Michael Sarver. He is unique in that he worked on an oil rig, and he is a decent singer though not the best in this year's competition. He is the one guy who could throw off my prediction, or could jump into the Top 5 should one of the favorites stumble. I think Michael, and not Allison, is this season's dark horse.

As for who will win, no way am I going to predict that now. I'm just going to sit back and watch the developments just like all of you, and of course make fun of them.